Friday, January 27, 2012

Where weather data comes from

We get the most weather data from weather satellites, but also from weather buoys, commercial ships, and airplanes.

Forecasts have become much more accurate over the past few decades. This chart shows how much (higher "anomaly correction" = better forecasts):

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Napavine = Weird

Napavine, WA (just south of Chehalis) has some weird weather:

  • 25.5 in. of snow last week
  • the only place in western Washington to be hit by a tornado last year
  • experienced flooding that closed the nearby Interstate for days
  • the warmest temperatures in western Washington during the July 09 heat wave (114F)

Speaking of weird, check out what last week's winds did to some waterfront homes in Oregon:

Monday, January 23, 2012

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Friday, January 20, 2012

It's over...for now

Warmer temperatures today. But forecast models for next week indicate some heavy rains, strong windstorms, and the arrival of frigid arctic air...

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Oops I accidentally the weather

I forecasted a little freezing drizzle in the South, not that the precipitation would move so far north, so fast. We have several hours more of this snow/sleet/freezing rain event. By tomorrow morning, there should be warmer temps.

Freezing rain/sleet storm

In case you haven't noticed, we're having a rare freezing rain/sleet storm everywhere south of Everett. It's caused by a temperature inversion near the surface, where warm air pushes up above a sub-freezing air mass. Some of this rain is freezing on the way down into ice pellets (sleet), but a lot of it is staying liquid and hitting the ground as freezing rain (freezes on contact with the cold surface).

Today there will be a wintry potpourri: freezing rain, sleet, snow, and rain, until the air warms up enough to turn it all into rain.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Sn'over by 1PM

It's gonna stop snowing around 1PM. More snow tomorrow, but only for Olympia and south. Rain and warmer on Friday, washing the snow away.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Meet our new weatherman

Mr Spock, please hold up fingers to show us how many inches of snow there will be tomorrow:


Newer, more reliable weather models agreeing with the "less snowfall" prediction. Stay tuned for more detail after 9pm tonight.

Less snow predicted for tomorrow

Predictions are now calling for less snow over Seattle tomorrow, probably only 2-5 inches. From Everett to Olympia, there will be less and less more and more snow as you head south.

Update: as some astute readers pointed out, CliffMassTLDR got the prediction of snow intensity backwards. Thanks for catching that.

Monday, January 16, 2012

I am exhausted thinking about all this weather action

There's gonna be some snow Tuesday, but the main event is Wednesday. The next few days have been hard to predict because two airstreams are battling it out up there.

The biggest snowstorm in years

Maybe. You know how those models are, always so fickle. But it looks like everything is going to be delayed by a day. In other words, there was obviously no snow event today; and Wednesday's slush might actually be lots more snow. Details tonight, after these models make up their beautiful minds.

More importantly, my lost dog was just spotted in Mountlake Terrace!

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Time for a nowcast!

Nowcast: lucky Everett, they got the Convergence Zone. It's snowing there now. Elsewhere, the snow level is 500ft. Snow showers in the mountains, of course.

Colder temperatures and more widespread snow tomorrow, up to a few inches.

More snow late Monday, and then wet snow early Wednesday, turning into rain.

Cliff Mass academic paper: TLDR

I published an academic paper about Nowcasting. "Nowcasting" is awesome because instead of requiring a prediction of what the weather will be like in the days ahead, all I need to do is describe the current weather on my blog. Oh, and it creates synergy.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

SNOW, er, I mean "snow?"

This increasing threat of snow SHOULD NOT BE OVERHYPED! Repeat: do not OVERHYPE the increasingly threatening forecast models, which predict colder temperatures and lowland snow from Sunday through Wednesday.

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

I'm going to use the word "snow"...

We'll have several dry days, but past Friday, there could be...


We'll know by Thursday.